The health and social care sector is facing a defining moment in 2025 as workforce shortages, burnout, and retention issues reach critical levels. Despite a slight reduction in vacancies, the demand for skilled professionals continues to outpace supply, particularly as the population over 65 grows rapidly.
The Scale of the Shortage
The NHS is currently grappling with a projected shortfall of 260,000 to 360,000 staff by 2036/37 if immediate action is not taken. As of 2023, there were over 125,000 vacancies in the NHS, with nursing alone expected to be 10,000 short of target this year. This shortage is not limited to nurses; doctors, allied health professionals, and support staff are also in short supply, leading to longer wait times, increased pressure on existing staff, and, in some cases, compromised care quality.
Several factors are driving these workforce challenges:
- Insufficient Domestic Training: The NHS has not trained enough doctors and nurses domestically, relying heavily on international recruitment to fill gaps. From 2019 to 2023, the number of internationally trained doctors in England grew by 38%, compared to just 10% for UK-trained doctors[1].
- Burnout and Mental Health: High workloads, stress, and burnout are leading to increased sickness absences, with anxiety and depression being the most common reasons for staff absence[6].
- Rising Costs: Increased National Living Wage and Employer National Insurance Contributions are adding financial strain, particularly for smaller providers, making it even harder to recruit and retain staff.
- Demographic Pressures: The proportion of the population aged 65 and over is set to increase by a third before 2030, further expanding demand for services while shrinking the available workforce.
The government has launched initiatives to expand career pathways and development opportunities, aiming to boost morale and retention. The NHS Long Term Workforce Plan includes ambitious targets to increase apprenticeship routes and expand medical school places, but implementation is hampered by funding constraints and limited clinical placement capacity.
Creative solutions are being explored, including:
- New Models of Care: Emphasising team-based and flexible working arrangements to make better use of existing staff.
- International Recruitment: While vital, there are plans to gradually reduce reliance on overseas staff by increasing domestic training capacity.
- Wellbeing Support: Enhanced support for staff mental health and wellbeing is being prioritised to reduce burnout and sickness absence.
While there are positive signs, such as improved NHS productivity and ongoing innovation, the sector’s workforce challenges remain formidable. Without sustained investment in training, recruitment, and staff support, the gap between demand and supply is set to widen, threatening the quality and accessibility of care for millions.
In summary, the health and social care sector stands at a crossroads. Addressing workforce shortages will require coordinated action, long-term investment, and a renewed commitment to supporting the professionals at the heart of the system.
